A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Bush 1989-93. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnsons job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. President Joe Biden's approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll . Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation. But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. 2 in PARS with a score of +33. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". . So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Susan Collins (25). The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Plus 18to minus 20 among voters 70 and older (the sharpest decline among any group we looked at). @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. All Rights Reserved. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. Johnson's campaign had raised more than $17 million by July 20, compared with $7 million raised by Barnes though Barnes' campaign said on Aug. 1 that it raised $1.1 million in just a week, after his Democratic rivals united behind him. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? His race is expected to be very competitive. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . Voters do not. Have you been living under a rock? The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. The poll is hardly an outlier. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. The American Independent is the No. Frankly, who cares what you think about Biden, the real question about your thinking is: Do you really believe voters are equally sickened by Biden as they truly are with Trump? Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? In . Those is Tim. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. RCP House Ratings, Map. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Today, the Democrat wins, he said. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. When the dates . GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. But the electorate has hardened around him. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). ago. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) Independent Sens. Youre ridiculous. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. But Democratic Gov. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. 2023 www.jsonline.com. 1 digital platform for progressive news, reaching millions of people each month. ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. That poll . Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. Partisan Lean (5). Incumbent Sens. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? Condition: --. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. 56% of independent voters in . Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater.
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