Instead, they missed the playoffs. And with Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks at the backend of the bullpen, they could be a real weapon to end games in the playoffs. Witt Jr. could be the future face of MLB and Melendezs bat is convincing Kansas City to give the catching prospect a shot at other positions. Acquiring Sonny Gray improves the rotation, but it could still use a front-line starter. It's fun when you hit it and you get to show you're mature enough to be accountable and use self-deprecating humor when you lose badly. Are we really counting on Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson, then? Close. There are two MVP candidates in the lineup and the Trevor Story signing creates one of the best infield in MLB. Maybe it's a case where I just didn't learn my lesson. I don't buy the Padres or Giants as 90-plus win teams, either. Cleveland might be trending the wrong direction compared to most teams, but finishing last still feels like a bit of a stretch. PECOTA views the Bronx Bombers as heavy favorites in the AL East, with Toronto projected for roughly nine fewer wins. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Joey Votto has never hit 40 homers in a season. Jarred Kelenic still needs to make a lot of strides. The moves bythe Marlinsmight not have been as splashy as the Mets or Phillies, but don't sleep on the additions they made this offseason. FanGraphs Membership. Sign up to receive our daily Morning Lineup to stay in the know about the latest trending topics around Major League Baseball. Toronto has the best odds of winning the pennant at 16.9 percent, while the White Sox and Astros trail narrowly behind at 15.2 and 13.9 percent, respectively. By Dom Luszczyszyn. A complete list of this year's voters: . However, the Yankees lineup could be without 60% of its production whenever it plays in Toronto. Case in point, Jon Lester had a 4.36 ERA compared to a 5.40 FIP in 12 starts last season after they acquired him and he's now retired. As much as I love Shane McClanahan, he won't be carrying an ace workload. Calling up Gabriel Arias could help with that. They will join Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. ET, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. Jose Ramirez can win an MVP, Franmil Reyes is capable of a .800-plus OPS and Myles Straw is an exciting talent. Payroll is the one thing keeping the Cleveland Guardians from putting up a great fight against Chicago. 7. Not only is Chicagos rotation among the best in the AL, its lineup is also outstanding. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The Mets committed nearly $500 million to free agents this offseason, re-signing Edwin Daz and Brandon Nimmo while also inking Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jos Quintana to replace departed starters deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. The loss of Gray takes away one arm that found success pitching in Colorado, but German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela continued to prove last season that they've figured it out. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. Derek Jeter left the Miami Marlins for a reason, he doesnt believe this team is all-in on winnings. Whenthe Padresmade the playoffs in the abbreviated 2020 season, many expected they'd take that next step in 2021 and be a true World Series contender. Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports. They'll be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. Detroit is also expecting rookies Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene to make the jump to the majors and provide the offense with the jolt it lacked in 2021. Download data. There just isnt enough talent around Reyes and Ramirez to make this a playoff-caliber lineup and that will prove costly over a full season. At least they have one of the best MLB lineups. Bob Melvin is the perfect skipper for the clubhouse, providing both strong in-game management and a leader who can help keep a lot of personalities in sync. The offense is stacked with names like Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu. Wed be even higher on this team because of its exciting rotation, if not for the fact Phillys defense is the worst in baseball. The rest of the AL Central is largely thinking about the future. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. Wed also feel comfortable projecting a Willson Contreras trade in our MLB predictions, coming in July. (As a reminder, Emmanuel Clase did it in 2022 . Statistical data provided by Gracenote. The offense added Starling Marte and Mark Canha to a lineup that was already strong with Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso in the infield and Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. I was going to be choosing between the Red Sox and Rays and the Rays' number is four higher, so here we are. The model doesn't think the signings make Texas a full-fledged contender just yet, but it sees this as a major step in the right direction. Milwaukee has made the playoffs four years in a row, a streak that should continue as the Cardinals didn't do much to close the gap. March 30, 2022. ET (ESPN). But ZiPS doesnt see it that way, and neither does PECOTA. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury. Bo Bichette is talented enough to take another step forward and join Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. as an MVP contender. The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs. Mookie Betts felt quiet in 2021, but he's still one of baseball's best at the dish. With Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer lined up . This article lays out all of our preseason MLB team ratings and projections for 2022, including our MLB projected standings, MLB postseason seed projections and various projection details such as final win-loss records, playoff chances, and World Series win odds. 1. If that happens, Tampa Bay is in business. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section. Victor Robles still flashes big potential, but has yet to make everything click. Were using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. Now, did that stop us from asking a number of MLB . The . So without further ado, we present to you seven bold predictions for the 2022 MLB season. 3. The Rockieswere surprisingly the top suitor for Kris Bryant, signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract Has a team ever lost 110 games as quietly as the Diamondbacks last year? Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the brightest stars when he's healthy and Manny Machado gives him powerful protection in the lineup. The rotation could be in tatters behind Zack Wheeler. 2023 Season; 2022 Season; 2021 Season; 2020 Season; 2019 Season; 2018 Season; CFB FBS. This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2022 MLB season. Texans spent heavily on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, adding two All-Star hitters to the lineup. Plus, in the NL West, the Dodgers are awesome and the Giants are coming off a 107-win season. They also signed Jon Gray, who could be due for a breakout season now that he's no longer pitching in Coors Field. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. But what the model really likes is the rotation. Even more surprising, potentially letting Freddie Freeman walk in free agency. The deepest lineup in baseball got deeper when it signed Freddie Freeman to help offset the loss of Seager. The Cherries are 19th in the standings with 21 points but trail Leeds United by one for 17th place. Arizona is avoiding a total rebuild and the Ketel Marte extensions signals he wont be moved. The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West, just not this year. This is not expected to be the year that the Oriolesmake a surprising surge to the playoffs and shock the baseball world, but it feels like that time is at least getting closer. The Cardinals often get far too much from their starters than they should. With that said, adding Chris Archer is a nice low-risk, high-reward move that should add more stability to Minnesotas pitching staff. MLB. For now, with everyone healthy, this looks like a Wild Card team that doesnt reach the ALDS. Let's take a look at each game with odds from DraftKings . However, concerns at catcher and in the outfield put SF a tier below the Dodgers. The model's concerns for Seattle stem from its uncertain pitching depth beyond Ray and Marco Gonzales and the risk of an underperforming infield, but make no mistake, the future is bright in Seattle. With Shane Baz, Yonny Chirinos and Tyler Glasnow out from possible rotation spots in addition to relievers Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks, that's a lot of slack that needs picking up. Offensively, there is room for improvement on this team in 2022. Picking the White Sox to run away with the division is certainly correct, but the rest of the standings feel a bit jumbled given recent history. Well give credit to the Chicago Cubs for not tearing everything down and beginning a total rebuild. Even over 162 games, surprises abound. Despite employing Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Halos missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season in 2022. Chicago White Sox. The problem is so often health, and that is the concern the model has for the Angels. As for Colorado, signing Kris Bryant feels like a move for ticket sales as this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. The Guardiansfeel like the biggest surprise in the division. With the last few days of build up comes all kinds of predictions, picks, best bets and the like. Copyright 2023 Sporting News Holdings Limited. Like the Tigers,the Royals are loaded with MLB-ready talent from Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto all expected to reach the big leagues at some point during the season to add to an offense that already includes Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield. If this is the year, Los Angeles could be in for a rise, especially with promising young talents Jo Adell, Reid Detmers and Brandon Marsh expected to be regulars in 2022. The biggest question mark for Los Angeles is undoubtedly in its rotation, where Walker Buehler will be the unquestioned ace after Scherzer left. MLB OFFSEASON GRADES:Dodgers, Mets earn high marks; Yankees confuse. The model does not expect the Brewers will emerge back on top in 2022. Drew Rasmussen threw 76 innings last year. We know there are moving parts and differences every single season and the Blue Jays have to replace the career year from Marcus Semien. MLB games today with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. There's certainly a void in the lineup without Tatis (and once his wrist is fully recovered, do we trust his shoulder to stay put the rest of the way?) As of now, this is the best team in the AL East. Jesus Luzardo wasn't sharp in his Miami debut, but he's shown off his electric skillset and sky-high potential in Spring Training and will likely be a popular breakout pick. The model is also high on the pitching of the Giants, giving San Francisco a major edge going into the postseason even as a wild-card team. The breakout season by the Giants mixed up the run of Dodgers' dominance, but the model expects Los Angeles to reclaim its crown in 2022. 400. You famously cannot predict baseball. The Post's Joel Sherman predicts the AL Central: 1. That is, we'll list the win total for the 2022 season from Caesars Sportsbook and pick whether the team will win more (the "over") or fewer (the "under") games. However, the starting rotation just doesnt seem good enough in a long season. After winning 99 games in 2022, the Yankees were able to re-sign Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo in free agency, and they inked All-Star lefty Carlos Rodnto a six-year contract. They added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 2021 All-Stars in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker Nobody really knows what to make of theAngels. The tip-off is set for 7:30 pm ET at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The St. Louis Cardinals strengthened their rotation depth this offseason, signing Steven Matz. Put yourself out there. Needless to say, our MLB predictions arent quite as high on the Boston Red Sox. Scorched. RHP Max Scherzer inked a super lucrative three-year deal with the New York Mets, paying him an average salary of $43.3 million. Things have frantically fallen into place since the new labor deal came together on March 10, with every team trying to jam most of its winter moves into just a few weeks. Pittsburgh is waiting for the Mitch Keller breakout to happen this spring, he's shown glimpses that it could be on the way as the rotation starts to weave in younger arms like Bryse Wilson and Roansy Contreras. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. It's been more than a decade since the Phillies made the playoffs but with Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber on board, this may be the best all-around team they've put together in recent years Credit to the Marlins for spending some money on Avisail Garcia ($53 million) and Jorge Soler ($36 million). The lineup dips after Jose Ramirez, and even with the powerful bat of Franmil Reyes, Cleveland lacks true support for its star third baseman. The Dodgers are currently favored to take it all. With Freddie Freeman joining the mix, the Dodgers are undoubtedly the best team in MLB. Joey Gallo should improve without the shift, and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson make for three of the best right-handed power bats in the sport when healthy. Those player stats are then merged in with their current teams to evaluate how good each team's lineups, rotation and bullpens will be in the 2022 season. while Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez bring the kind of veteran bats any team needs when it wants to make a leap in the . With that, multiple analysts within The Athletes Hub have sat down and explained their personal opinions on what could take place. The Phillies Will Need The Long Ball For A Long Shot World Series Comeback . All Rights Reserved. Heading into 2022, this division figures to be just as thrilling as the Padres continue to establish themselves as a threat in the league. 2 starter acquired before being more optimistic with our MLB predictions. Support FanGraphs. The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 5:30 p.m. The Cubsare engaging in a rebuild/reload to try and keep the team competition, while also building up its young core again. MLB predictions 2022: Final standings, playoff projections, World Series odds for every team, Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman, Reds, As top list of five MLB fan bases experiencing post-lockout blues, Dodgers, Mets earn high marks; Yankees confuse, Seiya Suzuki has won over Cubs' clubhouse; next impression will come with bat, Cody Bellinger is struggling again, but Dodgers are so good that it might not matter. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. Even after Gausman walked in free agency, San Francisco still returns Logan Webb, who is coming off a fantastic postseason, and bring back Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. Below, we look at those 2022 World Series odds; be sure to check back for our MLB picks and predictions as the season ramps up. Trevor Story is out, but he had a down year anyway and Kris Bryant is in. It isn't that simple, even if it sounds like it should be. The speedy outfield of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson returns as the best defensive unit in baseball, and they're each expected to improve offensively. Marcus Semien might have left in free agency, but Toronto acquired Matt Chapman to man third and give the team a star defender to the left of Bichette. Signing Seiya Suzuki, one of Japan's biggest sluggers over the past six seasons, is a big addition as he'll likely slot right into the middle of the lineup. Clayton Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy, but has been dominant when on the mound. Compared to the Brewers and Cardinals, the Cubs dont stack up and thats even after signing outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser help round out a rotation that has a case for the MLB's best, in front of a bullpen that has some star power with Josh Hader and Devin Williams. What is surprising, however, is that ZiPS also puts the Giants squarely in this race at 88-74. The Cleveland Cavaliers (39-26, 26-7 home) return to Ohio on Saturday for an Eastern Conference affair with the lowly Detroit Pistons (15-48, 7-25 away) who are in the gutter of the conference standings. It's always possible Aaron Nola gets back to ace level and Ranger Surez has all kinds of talent, possibly giving the Phillies a Big Three. 3 - New York Mets. As part of our year-round MLB coverage, we'll provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors . But as you might expect, they don't agree on everything. The Sporting News is unveiling a model to project the 2022 MLB season and make predictions based on the results. Maybe. They battled through adversity and were able to outlast the Houston Astros en route to a world series trophy. Meanwhile, ZiPS not only projects the Cards to win a second straight NL Central title but also gives St. Louis the largest margin of victory (seven games) of any of the projected division champions. Three got there in both 2018 and 2017. Replacing set-up man Craig Kimbrel with outfielder A.J. NL Playoffs: Wild-Card Series A: Mets over Brewers 2023 Projected Standings. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the teams vaunted pitching staff to allow 41 fewer runs than that of St. Louis. The rotation has the biggest question marks, but the signing of Zack Greinke to go along with Brady Singer, Brad Keller and Carlos Hernandez should be able to give the team quality innings. As for the Washington Nationals, the greatest hitter in MLB (Juan Soto) cant fix their rotation, bullpen nor take multiple spots in the batting order. PECOTA, however, sees a sizable gap of roughly five games between them, with the Mets on top. Last year, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal got a taste of the big leagues and showed promise, and will be expected to take it a step farther in 2022. One of the more remarkable tidbits about last season was the Dodgers' total being 103.5, them hitting the over with room to spare and still not winning the NL West. MLB.com. Everyone wants to see his light-tower power in the thin air of Coors Field, just as CJ Cron in his first year in Colorado. They are picked as a slight favorite to win the Commissioner's Trophy, just edging out the Blue Jays. From now on, all these projections will update every morning to reflect the latest . The Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC) finish the season against the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8) Saturday in Chapel Hill. ET. . The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. The only six teams with greater than a 5 percent chance of reaching the World Series are the four leaders in the AL East and the White Sox and Astros. The GB column is an abbreviation for Games Back and it shows how far teams are behind the leader of the division or put simply, first place. The Orioleshope to see top prospect Adley Rutschman soon (but not too soon) and are going to lose 100 games again but have players worth watching inCedric Mullins andRyan Mountcastle. Christian Yelich can only get better after . Pollock is a net win, given Chicagos needs, but the Garrett Crochet injury (Tommy John surgery) is a huge blow. Was Steven Matz's 2021 season a real change or is he more the guy who was well below average from 2017-20? Chicago averaged nearly five runs a game with injuries limiting . Back # WL Div GB # AL WL Pct GB # WL Div GB # Now that the season is over, the parade is done, and the dust has settled it is time to start looking at the 2022 season. Mega Picker; . Dropping $500 million on a new middle infield (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien)got plenty of attention for the Rangers An ongoing clearance sale has the Athletics expected to finish last,but Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas give Oakland a little bit of upward mobility if they don't get shipped off, too. This should be very difficult, as every team -- at least in theory -- should have a total right around where it is expected to finish. But that quickly changed, and the result was a disappointing 77-85 season. The Tigers also signed a pair of top free agents in Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez to provide some more established threats to the team. The Padres are absolutely a fringe playoff contender in the NL, but I'm not seeing them on the cusp of 90 wins. A lineup that already featured the reigning MVP in Bryce Harper added the dynamic bat of Nick Castellanos and left-handed slugger Kyle Schwarber. Follow the American League and National League races here from USA TODAY. Milwaukee finished with a DEF of 56, which was eight more runs than the next best team. The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay's staff is more likely to hold up in a series. Before long, Hayes will soon be joined on the left side of the infield by towering shortstop Oneil Cruz. 103 / 103+59 OR 103 / 162 = .636 OR 63.6%. Bookmark this page for in-season updates to our MLB predictions. The key tothe Giants'success in 2021 was a standout rotation. Related: Get Paramount Plus today and watch live sports for an unbeatable price! Carter Kieboom has been hyped for some time, and will finally be given a full opportunity once he returns from his forearm injury. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB. But after Los Angeles lost a number of key players and steered clear of this offseasons free-agent bonanza, the clubs grip on the division could be loosening. Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver look like they could front Arizona's rotation at some point, but for now, those two spots belong to the more experienced Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. The results of each simulation are tallied together to create the most likely outcomes of the divisions, playoffs and World Series. For all the talk of Bichette and Guerrero Jr. being a dynamic infield presence, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers also are a dangerous pair of bats from the left side of the infield. The influx of multiple 100-win teams per season these last handful of years isn't a coincidence, in my view. MLB 2022 win totals: Predicting every team's record for the new season. CHW Chicago White Sox. Matt Chapman is one of the best defensive players in the game and his bat should look better with the talent around it. Today's MLB slate is very busy, and the first game is at 3:10 pm ET. Trained by Michael McCarthy, Lugan Knight has two wins, one second and . . The Raysare that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. Major League Baseball's 2022 season has arrived. They have the best hitter of this generation in Mike Trout and the most talented player of all time in Shohei Ohtani, yet they continue to finish below .500. But it's easy to see them beat those projections. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Arizona also has to be relieved the DH is now in the league so it can give young slugger Seth Beer a way to consistently fit in the lineup. Instead, the model likes the chances ofthe Cardinalsto win the NL Central. The AL playoff picture will likely not come as a surprise. Atlanta can erase some of our concerns by acquiring Matt Olson. Fun fact: He finished the 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons with a combined batting average in the .290s, so maybe it wasn't surprising that he finished his first MLB season 91 games for the . The Rockies don't figure to be in the mix for the playoffs in 2022, but that lineup could be fun to watch. The team has pieces that will help it win games, with Frankie Montas at the front of that rotation and top prospect Cristian Pache immediately slotting into the outfield with Ramon Laureano. The Rays have won the division two years in a rowbut didn't do much to upgrade,and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract)taking a significant step forward Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. Comprehensive Major League Baseball news, scores, standings, fantasy games, rumors, and more This is tough. Major League Leaders . The defense is terrible. Top 2023 Gotham Stakes predictions One shocker: Demling is high on Lugan Knight, who is tied for third in the odds, at 6-1. The biggest thing we like about the Rays is their wealth of pitching, a crucial factor in a season where arms will be tested more than ever. If Byron Buxton is healthy, he's one of the games' brightest stars, but that continues to remain a big "if.". NEW YORK YANKEES 103-59. MORE:Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman. The East looks like a potential power in the National League, as well as the American League. The rotation is strong, especially after signing Carlos Rodn. It was a surprise to see theCubs spendsemi-big onSeiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman and Chicago enters the new season with most of the roster turned over Cincinnati stayed in the hunt into September last season, but now they'vetraded Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker andEugenio Suarez. The Atlanta Braves surprised everyone by winning the World Series. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. Adam Wainwright was ridiculous down the stretch last season and it's hard to bet against him, but he's also 40 years old. Both of these teams will be in the playoffs, everyones preference between the two is understandable. A starting rotation with two Cy Young candidates (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff), an All-Star No. Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel each had solid debut seasons in 2021, and return as established starters with Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. Notably, ZiPS and PECOTA both project the Angels to be significantly better than the Rangers, whose moves have been much splashier than the Halos in the past two offseasons.
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